Hurricane watches were in effect from southwestern Louisiana across the border into Mississippi on Friday as concern mounted about the potential for Tropical Storm Ida to strike Louisiana as a major hurricane on Sunday.
Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency Thursday evening due to the potential impacts from the future hurricane.
“Unfortunately, all of Louisiana’s coastline is currently in the forecast cone for Tropical Storm Ida, which is strengthening and could come ashore in Louisiana as a major hurricane as Gulf conditions are conducive for rapid intensification. Now is the time for people to finalize their emergency game plan, which should take into account the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,” Edwards said.
New Orleans is covered under the hurricane watch, and many residents were already taking to the stores to stock up on food and supplies ahead of Ida's arrival. The Sewerage and Water Board of New Orleans was assessing three downed pumps on Thursday, but officials expected 96 out of 99 drainage pumps to be available.
On Friday morning, the tropical storm was moving to the northwest at a speed of 15 mph and had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Ida was 75 miles north-northwest of Grand Cayman Island and 115 miles southeast of the Isle of Youth. The storm was stronger and larger in size on Friday compared to Thursday. Not only were winds 15 mph higher, but tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, up from 70 miles when the storm was named.
Tropical storm watches were in effect from the Alabama and Mississippi state line to the border between Alabama and Florida. Storm surge watches were also issued from Sabine Pass in southeastern Texas all the way to the border between Alabama and Florida.
Tropical storm warnings were issued for the Cayman Islands as well as parts of Cuba.
The latest forecast from AccuWeather meteorologists indicates that the storm will continue to increase in strength and take a path into the central Gulf of Mexico.
An area of high pressure near the Carolina coast is forecast to weaken just enough to allow the storm to move northwestward into the United States. The remaining circulation around the high is likely to be enough to keep the storm moving along while over the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
The storm is projected to slice across the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where rapid intensification is possible, as has been the case with several notorious storms in recent years such as Hurricane Michael in 2018, which struck the Florida Panhandle, and Hurricane Laura in 2020, which slammed southwestern Louisiana. There were a record 11 named storms that struck the U.S. in 2020.
So far this season, five named systems have reached land in the U.S., but none were hurricanes at the time of landfall.
AccuWeather forecasters are warning residents and businesses from the Texas coast to Louisiana and the panhandles of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, as well as fishing and petroleum operations, to closely monitor the progress of the developing situation as there may be little time to prepare once the system forms, begins a definitive path and strengthens rapidly along the way.
Rough seas are expected to build outward from the south-central Gulf to the northwest, north-central and northeastern parts of the Gulf Coast and offshore waters beginning on Saturday. Depending on the exact track, size and strength of the storm, conditions may rapidly deteriorate. The first rain bands may arrive along portions of the central Gulf Coast as early as late Saturday night or Sunday.
The system of interest was a broad area of showers and thunderstorms south of Cuba as of early Thursday morning. However, satellite images revealed a steady uptick in showers and thunderstorms over the Caribbean since the start of this week, and the system was upgraded to Tropical Depression Nine at around midday on Thursday. Wind shear and dry air on one side of the system had been inhibiting development into early Thursday, but that began to change.
"The atmospheric environment is expected to rapidly become more conducive for this system to organize and strengthen," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
Sea-surface temperatures in the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico could aid a strengthening storm, as they are well into the 80s F in many areas.
While in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, additional rapid strengthening is likely with the potential for the system to become not only a hurricane but perhaps the second major hurricane, which is Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, of the Atlantic season. A major hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. Thus far, Grace has been the only hurricane to reach Category 3 force, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph just prior to striking Mexico for a second time on Aug. 21.
How quickly the system ramps up may determine where it makes landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
After watching how the system behaves in the northwestern Caribbean, forecasters will be able to see a clearer picture of where the system will make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast and whether the timing of landfall will be later Sunday or in the early hours on Monday, although the earlier portion of that timeframe is looking more likely.
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