At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 76.2 West. Nicole is
moving toward the west-southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Thursday, and north or north-northeast on Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the
northwestern Bahamas this morning, move near or over those islands
by midday, and approach the east coast of Florida within the
hurricane warning area tonight. Nicole's center is then expected to
move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia
Thursday and Thursday night, and then across the Carolinas Friday
and Friday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and Nicole is forecast
to become a hurricane near the northwestern Bahamas and remain a
hurricane when it reaches the east coast of Florida tonight. Nicole
is expected to weaken while moving across Florida and the
southeastern United States Thursday through Friday, and it is likely
to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night over the
Mid-Atlantic states.
Nicole is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 460 miles (740 km) especially to the north of
the center. During the past few hours, a National Ocean Service
station at the Lake Worth Pier, Florida, reported sustained winds
of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h).
The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the
northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane conditions are expected within
the hurricane warning area starting in the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are also occurring along portions of the
east coast of Florida and will spread northward within the warning
area through Georgia and South Carolina today and tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida tonight or Thursday morning. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area along the west
coast of Florida by this evening or tonight.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the
St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South
Carolina...2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown
Florida...2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
* Anclote River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern
Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday night:
* Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8
inches.
* Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western
Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio:
2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.
* Northern Mid-Atlantic into portions of New York: 1 to 4 inches.
Flash and urban flooding will be likely, along with possible renewed
river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula
today into Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread
northward across portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and New
York Thursday into Friday night, where flooding impacts will be
possible.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening through
Thursday across eastern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and southern
South Carolina.
SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern
United States coast during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Comments