At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 80.0 West. Ian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected this evening, followed by a
north-northwestward motion on Monday and a northward motion on
Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track,
the center of Ian is expected to pass well southwest of Jamaica this
evening, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday.
Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night and early
Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin tonight. Ian is expected to
become a hurricane by early Monday and reach major hurricane
strength Monday night or early Tuesday before it reaches western
Cuba.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected later tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by
early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac by tonight
or early Monday.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up
to 8 inches.
Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.
Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4
inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through
Wednesday morning.
Heavy rainfall may affect north Florida, the Florida panhandle and
the southeast United States Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida
peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on
area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the
southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in
central Florida given already saturated conditions.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9
to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba
in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night
and early Tuesday.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast
of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
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