At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 80.4 West. Ian is moving
toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected late today, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed Friday night. On
the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on
Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas
Friday night and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian is expected to become a hurricane again
this evening and make landfall as a hurricane on Friday, with rapid
weakening forecast after landfall.
Ian is a large cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. A NOAA CMAN station at the
Saint Johns County pier in Saint Augustine Beach recently reported a
sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).
A WeatherSTEM station reported a gust of 74 mph (119 km/h) was
reported at Marineland, Florida.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Edisto Beach to South Santee River...4-7 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach...4-6 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River...2-4 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Duck, including Pamlico and
Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee including Charlotte Harbor... 1-3 ft
* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin over the
Hurricane Warning area starting early Friday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning overnight.
Tropical storm conditions are now occurring in parts of the
warning area on the east coasts of Florida and should spread
northward along the Georgia and North Carolina coasts today through
Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area in northeastern Florida and Georgia today into Friday.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:
* East Central to Northeast Florida: Additional rainfall of 2 to 4
inches, with storm totals around 20 inches in spots.
* Coastal Georgia: 2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts.
* Lowcountry of South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of
12 inches.
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern
Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across western
North Carolina.
Major-to-record river flooding will continue across central Florida
through next week. Considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is
expected across coastal portions of northeast Florida, southeastern
Georgia, and eastern South Carolina through Friday. Locally
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible
this weekend across portions of the southern Appalachians, where
landslides will be possible as well. Limited flooding is possible
across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Friday across the
coastal Carolinas.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
Florida. Swells will increase along the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina and North Carolina today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
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