PEMBROKE PARK, Fla. - MIDDAY TROPICAL UPDATE: AUGUST 24, 2019
UPDATE: THE DISTURBANCE WAY OUT IN THE ATLANTIC IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. IT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS… REACHING THERE ABOUT TUESDAY. IT COULD THREATEN PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS AS A HURRICANE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
But first, the tropical disturbance over the southern part of Florida is very disorganized and drifting slowly north. Late tomorrow or on Monday, it is forecast to curve to the right, and move off the East-Central Florida coast. As it crosses the Gulf Stream, the system is expected to organize and strengthen. The computer forecast models show a tropical storm or possibly eventually a hurricane well off the coast of the Carolinas early next week.
As always with disorganized systems, forecasts are iffy. But the only threat to South Florida appears to be from occasional heavy rain. How much and how often is not certain. A lot of dry air has wrapped into the system. People along the Georgia and Carolina coast will have to watch it closely.
New Tropical Depression Five has formed way out in the Atlantic, about 800 miles east of the eastern Caribbean islands. It’s a small system with a lot of dry air near it, which should keep it from developing quickly. Also, small systems are especially vulnerable to unfavorable surrounding conditions. In any case, it is still expected to gradually strengthen and be near or over the islands early in the week. Everybody there should pay attention to the latest forecasts.
In the longer range, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting the system to steadily intensify so that it may be at hurricane strength when it arrives in the vicinity of Puerto Rico or the surrounding islands midweek. It will have to overcome the dry air, and some marginal upper-level winds, but conditions may be adequate for significant strengthening. It’s time to pay close attention to future forecasts.
Another tropical wave has moved off of Africa, but it’s running into the same dry atmosphere. Otherwise, no tropical development is expected.
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