At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 72.2 West. Erin is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday and then a
northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas today and
tonight, and then move over the western Atlantic between the U.S.
east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few
days.
Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of the Turks and Caicos today and through
tonight for the Bahamas. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with
storm total amounts to 8 inches, are possible, which could lead to
flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall is possible on the Outer
Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday with potential
for 1 to 2 inches and a local maximum of 4 inches.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours
across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central
Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions
of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
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