At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 20.7 North,
longitude 67.0 West. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near
14 mph (22 km/h). This motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected today, followed by a gradual turn to the north on Monday
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to
pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
over the next day or two.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall today across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches,
are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along
with landslides or mudslides, are possible.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across the warning
area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Southeast
Bahamas tonight and Monday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical
storm force could occur over portions of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today and across the central Bahamas Monday and Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of
the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.
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