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5pm Hurricane Erin Update

  • Writer: Jaclyn St James
    Jaclyn St James
  • Aug 19
  • 2 min read
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 72.7 West. Erin is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight followed by a northward motion on Wednesday and then a northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas tonight, and then move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days. Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall will be diminishing across the Turk and Caicos and the Bahamas late this afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall is possible on the Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday with the potential for 1 to 2 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area north of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light beginning Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda beginning Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 72.7 West. Erin is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight followed by a northward motion on Wednesday and then a northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas tonight, and then move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days. Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall will be diminishing across the Turk and Caicos and the Bahamas late this afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall is possible on the Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday with the potential for 1 to 2 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area north of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light beginning Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda beginning Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

 
 
 

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