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5PM Hurricane Eric Cat 5 Update

  • Writer: Jaclyn St James
    Jaclyn St James
  • Aug 16
  • 2 min read
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 64.0 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this evening. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn toward the north is expected to occur early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday and pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected tonight through Sunday night. A slow weakening is expected to begin on Monday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Erin this evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 915 mb (27.02 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the watch area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning on Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur elsewhere over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may also occur over the southeastern Bahamas beginning on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information.
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 64.0 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this evening. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn toward the north is expected to occur early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday and pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected tonight through Sunday night. A slow weakening is expected to begin on Monday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Erin this evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 915 mb (27.02 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the watch area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning on Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur elsewhere over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may also occur over the southeastern Bahamas beginning on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information.

 
 
 

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