At 400 PM EDT, the eye of Hurricane Ian was located by an
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Tampa radar data
near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 82.3 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a
reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn
toward the northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Ian is expected to move onshore soon, move over central Florida
tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by
late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and
approach the northeastern Florida coast in addition to the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts late Friday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west
coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane soon. Weakening is
expected after landfall, but Ian could be near hurricane strength
when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it
approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina
coasts late Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at
Redfish Pass, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 94 mph
(151 km/h) and a wind gust of 126 mph (203 km/h), A Weatherflow
station at Tarpon Point recently reported sustained winds of 83 mph
(134 km/h) with a gust to 101 mph (163 km/h).
The minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches) based on Air
Force Reserve dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-18 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood...6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...8-12 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...5-8 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6
ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River ...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* North of South Santee River to Surf City NC...1-3 ft
* Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ian
moves onshore. Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the
Hurricane Warning area now and will slowly spread northeastward
through the day.
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on
Thursday through late Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in the
Florida Keys, and will continue for a few more hours. Tropical
storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area on the
east coast and should spread northward through the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts tonight and Thursday.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
local maxima of 12 inches.
Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across central Florida. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
portions of southern Florida through Wednesday, and northeast
Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina later this
week through the weekend. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic
U.S. later this week through the weekend.
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight, especially
across east central Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
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