At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 52.7 West. Erin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion
expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the
center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern
Leeward Islands over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few
days and Erin is expected to become a hurricane tonight and could
become a major hurricane by this weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy
rainfall beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend
across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are
expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated flash and urban
flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Erin, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend, and will likely spread to the eastern United States coast
by next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather forecast office.
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