At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 81.4 West. Ian is moving toward
the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the
northeast and north is expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move across
central Florida overnight and Thursday morning and emerge over the
western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn
northward on Friday and approach the northeastern Florida, Georgia
and South Carolina coasts.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected for the next day
or so, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it moves over
the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches the
northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...8-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...5-8 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Suwannee River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft
* Florida Keys...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Severe and extensive wind damage is likely near the core of
Ian. Hurricane conditions are ongoing within the Hurricane Warning
area now and will slowly spread northeastward overnight.
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin along the east coast of
Florida in the Hurricane Warning area starting early Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on
Thursday through late Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the warning area
on the east coast of Florida and should spread northward through
the northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight
and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area starting on Friday.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall amounts:
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 20 inches, with local
maxima up to 30 inches.
* Coastal Georgia and Low Country of South Carolina: 4 to 8
inches, with local maxima of 12 inches.
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and
southern Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches
across western North Carolina.
Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding,
with major to record flooding along rivers, will continue across
central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida,
southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina tomorrow through
the weekend. Locally considerable flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible this weekend across portions of the southern
Appalachians with limited flooding possible across portions of
southern Mid-Atlantic.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible across parts of
east-central and northeast Florida through Thursday morning. This
threat will shift into the coastal Carolinas on Friday.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina tonight and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
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