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11PM Hurricane Erin Update

  • Writer: Jaclyn St James
    Jaclyn St James
  • Aug 15
  • 2 min read
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 59.5 West. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through the weekend with a gradual decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 24-36 hours, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane during the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated by NOAA and Air Force dropsonde data is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall tonight into Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands this weekend, and will likely spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office.
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 59.5 West. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through the weekend with a gradual decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 24-36 hours, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane during the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated by NOAA and Air Force dropsonde data is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall tonight into Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands this weekend, and will likely spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office.


 
 
 

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