At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 43.4 West. Erin is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue into Thursday, with a west-northwestward
motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend.
On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or
just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin later today or tonight,
and Erin is expected to become a hurricane by Friday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather forecast office.
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