At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 67.4 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is
expected today, followed by a gradual turn to the north on Monday
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to
pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity are likely
over the next couple of days, but Erin is expected to remain a
dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of
heavy rainfall today across Puerto Rico. Additional rainfall of 2 to
4 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are expected
across Puerto Rico through Monday, as well as the Turks and Caicos,
and the eastern Bahamas through San Salvador Island through Tuesday.
Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides, are possible.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across the warning
area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Southeast
Bahamas tonight and Monday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical
storm force could occur over portions of the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico today and across the central Bahamas Monday and Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will
spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of
the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.
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